NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Betting: The Case for Jaxon Smith-Njigba in 2023

The Seattle Seahawks selected Jaxon Smith-Njigba with the 20th pick of the first round in the 2023 NFL Draft. He was the first receiver to come off the board on draft night, and his selection kicked off a run on the available pass-catchers in the class.

The NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook have Smith-Njigba priced at +900 to win the AP’s Offensive Rookie of the Year (OROY) award. Those odds tie him with Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs with the fifth-best chance of taking the crown at season’s end.

The four names ahead of Smith-Njigba include running back Bijan Robinson (+300), and quarterbacks Bryce Young (+430), C.J. Stroud (+700), and Anthony Richardson (+700).

So how would a wide receiver win the Offensive Rookie of the Year award over such tough competition? Let's break it down.

The Anatomy of a Wide Receiver OROY

Wide receivers have won the AP’s OROY award in each of the last two seasons. Both Garrett Wilson (2022) and Ja'Marr Chase (2021) were certainly deserving of the honor, but it’s important to note that they each traveled a different path on their way to winning their awards.

In the case of Chase, who was the first receiver to win the award since Odell Beckham in 2014, it was a matter of outstanding, undeniable production. Chase was forced to compete against quarterbacks Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields in 2021, both of whom entered the NFL as first-round picks and had previously been the top-two recruits in their high school class. In other words, two of his competitors were names that voters had been aware of for years prior to the players even entering the NFL.

Lawrence and Fields were far from the only other competition Chase bested on his way to winning the award. The 2021 NFL Draft was chock full of future NFL stars, including tight end Kyle Pitts, fellow receivers Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith (a Heisman award winner), and running back Najee Harris.

In a field of elite competition, Chase’s 81 catches for 1,455 yards and 13 touchdowns made it clear by the season’s end that he was the correct choice to win the OROY award. His 13 touchdowns ranked third among all pass-catchers, his 1,455 were the fourth-most, and his 18.0 yards per reception trailed only Deebo Samuel's 18.2.

Chase was nothing short of sensational in his first season, and he left little doubt in anyone’s mind that he deserved to win the award. As such, he dominated the voting.

Wilson’s path to his title was a little different.

Wilson’s rookie season was certainly impressive, but his 83 catches for 1,103 yards and 4 touchdowns can’t quite match Chase’s stunning first-year numbers. So how did Wilson win his award?

Wilson may have won the 2022 OROY award by virtue of being the last man standing in his draft class. At one point, Breece Hall, Wilson's own teammate, was the favorite to win the award, but Hall suffered a season-ending knee injury halfway through the year. Wilson finished with a better final receiving line than his fellow first-round receiver picks -- Drake London, Chris Olave, Jahan Dotson, and Treylon Burks -- and Kenny Pickett, the lone first-round quarterback, had a mediocre season. Kenneth Walker III, Wilson’s toughest competition for the award by season’s end, missed the start of the campaign and didn’t assume the starting running back job for the Seattle Seahawks until Week 6.

Just based on the level of competition Smith-Njigba will face from his own rookie class this year, it stands to reason that his rookie campaign will need to look closer to Chase’s than Wilson’s.

It’s certainly possible that it will, too.

Wilson himself sang Smith-Njigba’s praises, claiming that Smith-Njigba was the best receiver in Ohio State’s locker room when he, Olave, and Smith-Nijgba all played together. The team’s receiving stats from that season back up that statement as Smith-Njigba’s 95 catches and 1,606 yards led the Buckeyes in 2021.

Opportunity in Seattle

Racking up 1,606 receiving yards while playing alongside future first-round picks like Wilson and Olave -- not to mention potential 2024 first-rounders like Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka -- is an extremely impressive feat and one that may help JSN produce in his rookie season alongside fellow Seahawks D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.

Metcalf and Lockett are both top-notch receivers in their own right. Each crested 1,000 receiving yards in 2022 with Geno Smith under center, and the tandem combined for 2,081 receiving yards and 15 touchdowns. For context, their receiving production accounted for 48.6% of the Seahawks’ total receiving yards as well as 50% of Seattle's total receiving touchdowns last season.

In other words, Metcalf and Lockett dominated the opportunities, and Smith-Njigba will need to fight to carve out solid volume in 2023. But that’s not to say he can’t, and his experience playing with Wilson and Olave at Ohio State may have been the best possible preparation for this challenge.

Smith-Njigba produced such gaudy numbers for the Buckeyes while operating primarily from the slot, running 85% of his routes from that position, according to Pro Football Focus. Metcalf has operated almost exclusively as an outside receiver in his career, with just 13.8% of his targets coming while he was lined up in the slot last year. That number is higher for Lockett, who drew 45.3% of his targets from the slot in 2022.

Lockett will likely continue to garner targets from the slot (especially on deeper route concepts and two-receiver sets), but Smith-Njigba offers the Seahawks a chain-moving profile that Lockett cannot due to his slighter 181-pound frame. Where Lockett averaged just 3.3 yards after the catch per reception last season, Smith-Njigba averaged 8.3 per catch in his breakout college campaign.

According to Pro-Football-Reference, Lockett has broken just three total tackles over his last two seasons. Meanwhile, Smith-Njigba had two separate games in which he broke four tackles in 2021 and finished that season with 19 total. With the caveat that it's obviously harder to break tackles in the NFL than it is in college, Smith-Njigba profiles as a completely different kind of slot receiver from Lockett and can give Seattle something they don't have.

In search of what volume may look like in an offense with three quality wideouts, we can look at the recent seasons of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, although it's not a perfect comparison. The Bucs have deployed a group consisting of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and one of either Antonio Brown or DeSean Jackson for several of the past few seasons. They made heavy use of Godwin as a plus-sized slot receiver in those offenses, and that helped him amass over 1,000 receiving yards in three of his last four campaigns.

Metcalf bears a similar profile to Evans as a field-stretching boundary receiver, and Lockett can operate as a Jackson/Brown-style playmaker. Smith-Njigba could produce the kind of eye-catching numbers he would need to win the OROY award if the Seahawks use him as a Godwin-type receiver in their offense in his rookie season.

Plus, an injury to Metcalf or Lockett would likely be a boon for JSN's volume and open the door for him to see big-time targets.

Final Thoughts

Smith-Njigba does not have the easiest path to winning the AP’s Offensive Rookie of the Year award, and his +900 odds reflect that. It’s easier to see one of this year’s top quarterbacks or Bijan Robinson (+300) winning the award. But the former Buckeye is one of the most exciting prospects in the 2023 draft class and deserves to be in consideration for the award heading into the 2023 season.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.